One in Four: The Hidden Obesity Epidemic

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Rethinking Obesity: Why BMI Might Be Misleading a Quarter of Australians

It’s a common perception: if your Body Mass Index (BMI) is within the ‘normal’ range, you’re likely in the clear when it comes to weight-related health concerns. However, groundbreaking new research is challenging this long-held belief, suggesting that as many as one in four individuals with a seemingly healthy BMI could, in fact, be clinically obese. This revelation has significant implications for how we understand and diagnose obesity, particularly here in Australia, where the issue is already a major public health concern.

Researchers from the University of Southern California, in collaboration with other institutions, undertook a comprehensive study involving over 5,600 adults in the United States. Their investigation delved beyond simple weight and height calculations, examining a range of body measurements and scrutinising participants for the presence of health conditions typically associated with obesity. The findings were stark: approximately 26 per cent of the study participants met the clinical criteria for obesity, despite their BMI not flagging them as such.


This research builds upon a significant shift in medical thinking proposed by last year’s Lancet Diabetes and Endocrinology Commission. This influential commission advocated for a more nuanced approach to diagnosing obesity, moving away from an over-reliance on BMI alone. Instead, it suggested a more holistic assessment that includes physical characteristics and direct evidence of excess body fat, such as waist circumference. The rationale is that focusing solely on BMI can cause individuals who are metabolically unhealthy due to excess fat to be overlooked.

The US researchers’ work supports this new strategy, highlighting its potential to identify obesity in individuals who might otherwise “fly under the radar” of BMI-based screening methods. This is particularly relevant in Australia, where the statistics on overweight and obesity are already concerning.

The Australian Obesity Landscape: A Deeper Dive

According to data from the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (AIHW), a staggering nearly 70 per cent of Australian adults are currently living with overweight or obesity. While this figure has remained relatively stable since the late 2010s, the new research suggests that the actual prevalence could be considerably higher if our diagnostic methods were more comprehensive.

Historically, men in Australia have shown higher rates of overweight or obesity, and also of being overweight but not obese, compared to women. These figures, however, are subject to change, especially with the increasing accessibility of weight-loss medications.

The Rise of Weight-Loss Therapies and Emerging Concerns

The global conversation around obesity treatment has been significantly influenced by the emergence of GLP-1 therapies. In December, the World Health Organisation (WHO) released its first guidelines on these treatments, conditionally recommending them as part of long-term obesity management.


However, the journey of these powerful medications in Australia has been met with caution. Australia’s drug regulator, the Therapeutic Goods Administration (TGA), has issued multiple warnings concerning high-profile injectable diabetes and weight-loss drugs, including Ozempic. In December, the TGA updated its advice for the entire class of GLP-1 receptor agonists, flagging the potential for serious side effects, including the risk of suicidal thoughts.

Beyond mental health concerns, Australian researchers have also raised alarms about other potential adverse effects associated with these weight-loss drugs. These include reports of arthritis and gastrointestinal issues, underscoring the importance of careful patient selection and ongoing monitoring.

The Growing Challenge for Australia’s Youth

The issue of excess weight is not confined to the adult population. AIHW data reveals a troubling trend among Australia’s children and adolescents. More than one in four Aussie children and teenagers, aged between two and 17, are classified as overweight or obese.


This figure has seen a steady increase since 1995, and it too may represent an underestimate of the true scale of the problem. As the understanding of obesity evolves and diagnostic tools become more sophisticated, it’s clear that a more nuanced approach is urgently needed to effectively address this complex and widespread health challenge across all age groups in Australia. The implications of this new research could lead to a fundamental re-evaluation of public health strategies and individual health assessments, potentially identifying and supporting many more Australians who are at risk due to obesity, even when their BMI appears normal.

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