The NBA’s Struggle with Tanking and the 2026 Draft Lottery
The NBA has long been a league where the race to the bottom is as intense as the race for the championship. For months, the league’s worst teams have been losing at historic rates, creating a situation that has drawn criticism from fans and analysts alike. However, this trend may soon change. Commissioner Adam Silver has hinted at the introduction of new “anti-tanking” rules for the 2025-26 season, which will more heavily penalize teams that prioritize losing over winning games.
Until these new rules are implemented, the 2026 draft class remains highly anticipated, and several struggling franchises continue to compete for the top pick in the draft. Among the non-playoff contenders, three teams stand out as having the best chances at securing the 2026 No. 1 overall pick: the Indiana Pacers, Brooklyn Nets, and Washington Wizards.
Understanding the NBA Draft Lottery
The official announcement of the No. 1 pick will not occur until the draft lottery on May 10, 2026. On that day, every non-playoff team (or teams who own a non-playoff team’s pick) will find out their fate and whether the lottery worked in their favor.
However, the NBA’s lottery odds system already provides some insight into which teams might benefit the most. The system gives favorable odds to the bottom-three teams in the league, but there is no special distinction for the team with the worst record. Having the fewest wins does not provide any additional advantage compared to having the third-fewest wins. All three of the league’s worst teams receive a 14.0% chance at winning the lottery and receiving the No. 1 overall pick.
After the regular season ended on Sunday, the Wizards, Pacers, and Nets finished with the three worst records. Here are the updated standings:
- Washington Wizards: 17-65
- Indiana Pacers: 19-63
- Brooklyn Nets: 20-62
The Utah Jazz and Sacramento Kings, who did not secure a bottom-three record, will each receive an 11.5% chance at the No. 1 pick.
Updated Draft Lottery Odds
Based on the current NBA standings, here is how the draft lottery odds would be projected. The final odds will be officially determined by which teams lose in the Play-In Tournament.
No. 1 Pick Odds
| Team | Record | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Washington Wizards | 17-65 | 14.0% |
| Indiana Pacers | 19-63 | 14.0% |
| Brooklyn Nets | 20-62 | 14.0% |
| Utah Jazz | 22-60 | 11.5% |
| Sacramento Kings | 22-60 | 11.5% |
| Memphis Grizzlies | 25-57 | 8.3% |
| Atlanta Hawks | 26-56 | 8.2% |
| Dallas Mavericks | 26-56 | 6.0% |
| Chicago Bulls | 31-51 | 4.5% |
| Milwaukee Bucks | 32-50 | 3.0% |
| Golden State Warriors | 37-44 | 2.0% |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 42-40 | 1.5% |
| Miami Heat | 43-39 | 1.0% |
| Charlotte Hornets | 44-38 | 0.5% |
What’s Next?
As the season progresses, the standings and lottery odds will continue to shift. Teams that are currently in the bottom of the league may improve, while others could fall further behind. The Play-In Tournament will play a crucial role in determining which teams qualify for the playoffs and, consequently, which teams get to participate in the draft lottery.
Fans and analysts alike will be closely watching how the remaining games unfold, as the 2026 NBA Draft promises to be one of the most exciting in recent years. With the potential for a strong draft class and the looming changes to the anti-tanking rules, the NBA is set for an intriguing chapter in its ongoing evolution.
