Congress Wraps Up a Monumental Legislative Year, But What Lies Ahead?
As the calendar year draws to a close, Capitol Hill is winding down what may prove to be the most significant legislative year of President Trump’s tenure. Unlike his first term, where a landmark tax cut was achieved but efforts to repeal the Affordable Care Act fell short, this year saw the consolidation of the administration’s priorities into a single, sweeping piece of legislation – the “One Big Beautiful Bill” – signed into law on July 4th.
This comprehensive bill not only extended the substantial tax cuts enacted in 2017 but also initiated significant overhauls to the social safety net. Key provisions included the introduction of work requirements for programs like Medicaid, the elimination of loopholes that previously directed additional funding to rural hospitals, and a substantial $170 billion allocation for enhanced border security and immigration enforcement. Furthermore, the bill earmarked over $24 billion for a “Golden Dome” missile defense system and rolled back Biden-era clean energy tax credits. In a nod to future generations and agricultural interests, it established new investment accounts for children born during Trump’s second term and provided tax relief for family farmers concerning inheritance taxes on their properties.
President Trump himself characterized the bill’s scope at an October business forum in Tokyo, stating, “It really covers everything… I said, ‘Put it all into one bill, and if we get it done, we’re done for four years.’ We don’t need anything more from Congress in terms of that.” This statement raises the question: is Congress, particularly the Republican-controlled chamber, now effectively sidelined?
The White House’s Independent Stride and Congressional Maneuvers
The current White House has demonstrated a pronounced inclination to operate with a degree of independence from Congress, a trend that has raised questions about the Legislative Branch’s constitutional authority, particularly its “power of the purse.” In several instances, the administration has bypassed congressional approval to enact significant policy changes. This includes the redirection of billions of dollars from federal government programs and the authorization of lethal action against Venezuelan vessels as part of an offensive against drug cartels, actions that circumvented Congress’s role in authorizing war powers. Even the Kennedy Center’s board reportedly voted to rename the performing arts institution the Trump-Kennedy Center, a move that, while seemingly administrative, touches upon areas traditionally overseen by Congress.
During the prolonged 43-day federal government shutdown, President Trump’s approach to finding a resolution was notably deliberate, with House Speaker Mike Johnson keeping the House of Representatives out of session for an extended period. Democrats suggested this strategy was intended to prevent potential votes that could challenge the president’s agenda. The administration also appears less inclined to utilize the budget reconciliation process – a legislative mechanism allowing for bypass of the Senate filibuster – for future initiatives, such as addressing healthcare costs in 2026.
Lingering Battles and Emerging Issues for the New Year
Despite the administration’s apparent legislative aims, 2025 is unlikely to be a quiet year for Congress. Several contentious issues from the previous year are poised to resurface with renewed vigor.
Affordable Care Act Subsidies: Moderate Republicans and Democrats are intensifying their focus on the COVID-era Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidies. A discharge petition, a procedural tool used to force a bill to the floor against the Speaker’s wishes, has garnered support from four moderate Republicans and all Democrats. This petition aims to extend the ACA subsidies for three years. While the bill is unlikely to pass the Senate, the required House floor vote will provide vulnerable Republican incumbents an opportunity to vote on a measure addressing healthcare costs, a critical issue for voters heading into the midterm elections. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries has been vocal, urging Speaker Johnson to bring the subsidy extension bill to a vote immediately, criticizing Republicans for prioritizing their “extreme agenda” over lowering the cost of living.
Government Funding and Leverage: With government funding set to expire at the end of January, Democrats possess another potential leverage point. The party has not ruled out the possibility of a government shutdown to compel a vote on the healthcare subsidies, indicating a willingness to use this tactic if necessary.
U.S. Strikes in Venezuela: The administration’s strikes against alleged drug trafficking ships in the Caribbean and discussions surrounding potential regime change in Venezuela have drawn concern from members of both parties. Although a House vote seeking greater congressional approval for continued strikes failed this week, the underlying unease among many lawmakers persists and could reignite in the new year.
The Jeffrey Epstein Investigation: The ongoing investigation into the estate of convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein by the House Oversight Committee is expected to intensify. The Justice Department’s impending release of a substantial trove of files related to Epstein, due today, is anticipated to generate significant attention and potentially lead to pointed responses from the committee.
Shifting Political Dynamics and Congressional Agendas
The upcoming midterm elections in 2026 are casting a long shadow over the legislative landscape. With Republicans facing a challenging path to maintaining their majority and redistricting efforts already shaping races, the political calculus for many members is shifting. Reports indicate frustration among some Republican members regarding Speaker Johnson’s leadership, particularly in light of President Trump’s assertion that the party’s legislative agenda is complete.
When questioned about voter support for Republicans if Trump declares the legislative agenda finished, Speaker Johnson outlined an aggressive agenda for January, emphasizing efforts to lower costs and codify the president’s executive orders. He stated, “You’re going to see an aggressive affordability agenda, and we’re going to see continued codification of the president’s executive orders. He’s up to about 200 of those, probably about 150 of them are codifiable by Congress, and we’re working steadily through that list you’re going to see us delivering for the American people.”
Notable Reporting from The Post:
- Mexico Strategy and Boat Strikes: Stephen Miller’s hard-line approach to Mexico has evolved into deadly boat strikes, as detailed in reporting by Ellen Nakashima, Alex Horton, and Dan Lamothe.
- Probes into Boat Strike Survivors: GOP signals a potential end to investigations into the military’s actions regarding the killing of boat strike survivors, according to Noah Robertson.
- Trump’s Pardons and Victim Compensation: Beth Reinhard and Aaron Schaffer report on how Trump’s pardons have nullified payments to victims of fraud.
- Russian Missile and U.S. Technology: A Russian missile, containing U.S. technology, has had devastating consequences for a Ukrainian boy, as reported by Lizzie Johnson, Kostiantyn Khudov, Anastacia Galouchka, Serhiy Morgunov, and Carolyn Van Houten.
- Marijuana and CBD Access: Dan Diamond, David Ovalle, and Jacob Bogage cover President Trump’s directive to expand access to marijuana and CBD, citing medical benefits.
- Military Housing Funds for Bonuses: Jacob Bogage, Noah Robertson, and Riley Beggin report on Trump’s decision to reallocate military housing funds to provide $1,776 Pentagon bonuses.
- Coast Guard Policy Revisions: Governor Noem announces revisions to Coast Guard policies concerning swastikas and nooses, as reported by Tara Copp and Marianne LeVine.
What to Watch: The Epstein Files
Today marks a critical deadline for the Justice Department to release the remaining files pertaining to the late Jeffrey Epstein. Legislation passed in November mandated the Trump administration to make public all records concerning the convicted sex offender. The Justice Department had one month to redact information that could jeopardize ongoing investigations or expose victims’ personal details.
The precise contents and extent of this release remain uncertain. The provision allowing for the withholding of information related to ongoing investigations grants the administration discretion in determining what is made public. However, the law does require the Justice Department to disclose what information was redacted. It is anticipated that the release will be extensive, potentially comprising hundreds of thousands of pages accumulated over years of investigations. Earlier this month, a federal judge indicated that the release could also include sealed grand jury transcripts. This batch of files is distinct from those originating from Epstein’s estate, which the House Oversight Committee has been progressively releasing throughout the year.
Campaign Dynamics: The Democratic Party’s Report Card
In a significant reversal, the Democratic National Committee (DNC) has announced it will not publicly release its post-mortem analysis of the 2024 presidential campaign. This decision marks a departure from the initial plan to publish a document intended to address the party’s perceived failures.
DNC officials stated that by withholding the report, they aim to avoid the intense internal debates that followed Kamala Harris’s loss to Trump. Instead, the party is eager to focus on celebrating anticipated victories in 2025 and preparing for the 2026 midterm elections. Ken Martin, chair of the DNC, articulated this strategic shift, stating, “Here’s our North Star: Does this help us win? If the answer is no, it’s a distraction from the core mission.”
However, this decision has generated questions about the report’s contents and sparked criticism from party operatives who fear the DNC is attempting to evade accountability. Alyssa Cass, a Democratic operative in New York, argued, “A handful of wins is not the same as the rehabilitation of the Democratic brand, which is required to build real governing majorities and a national coalition… Achieving that requires real soul-searching and new ideas, and it would be nice for candidates and campaigns to know they had a partner in that hard work, instead of an institutional structure buried in the sand.”
Local Perspectives Across the Nation:
- Texas Monthly: Explores the notion of Texas as a “nonvoting state” rather than a definitively red state, questioning whether Jasmine Crockett’s electoral strategies can capitalize on this potential demographic.
- CalMatters (California): Examines the Community Assistance, Recovery, and Empowerment (CARE) Court program, designed to assist individuals with severe untreated mental illnesses, and finds its track record to be inconsistent.
- Portland Press Herald (Maine): Delves into Graham Platner’s complex and controversial journey from disillusionment with Washington to his decision to run for the Senate.
Your Voice Matters: Share Your 2026 Outlook
As we look ahead, we invite you to share your thoughts on what you are most anticipating in the new year. What issues do you believe Congress should prioritize? Are there specific actions or policies from the president that you are closely watching? Do any Supreme Court cases raise particular concern? And what personal resolutions do you have for 2026? Please send your insights to earlytips@washpost.com to share with us and your fellow readers.
Thank you for your continued readership. You can follow Matthew and Dan on X (formerly Twitter) at @matthewichoi and @merica, respectively.
