On the surface, St Kilda’s season might appear to be treading water, despite a significant off-season investment in new talent. The Saints currently occupy 12th spot on the ladder with a 5-7 win-loss record, mirroring their position at this same juncture last year. However, a closer look reveals a more nuanced picture. Their percentage has improved by 10 per cent to 102.3, a figure that actually places them ahead of the ninth-placed Magpies and even the seventh-placed Western Bulldogs, a team known for its potent scoring last season.
This season, St Kilda is averaging over seven more points per game than they did last year, scoring 89.6 points per outing. Defensively, they’ve tightened up slightly, conceding an average of 87.6 points per game. Yet, this improvement comes despite key defender and co-captain Callum Wilkie shouldering a significant load without consistent support. Their current rankings of 10th in scoring and ninth in defence highlight why they remain firmly in the mid-table pack.
While their differential in scores from turnover has seen a minor dip, a significant positive has been their leap from 10th to fourth in scores from clearances differential. However, their season narrative is perhaps best encapsulated by their solitary win against a top-10 side, Greater Western Sydney. As one astute league observer recently commented, despite their own struggles, Carlton is only one win behind the Saints, a similar position to the rebuilding West Coast Eagles.
Dual North Melbourne premiership player and prominent commentator David King expressed his thoughts, stating, “I didn’t expect them to be a contender this year. I think the teams that are around the mark that St Kilda are at really find it hard to beat top four, top six teams. The next progression is you win one out of every three, and then you win one out of every two, and then you’re in the hunt. I think they’re miles from that. I never thought they were a flag contender this year, I’ve never had them in the top four to six teams. So, they are where they are right now because they’re just not quite there.”
The club’s substantial financial outlay in the off-season, bringing in players like Tom De Koning, Jack Silvagni, Sam Flanders, and Liam Ryan, and reportedly making Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera the highest-paid player in the competition, was intended to propel the Saints into September action. The expectation was a finals berth, possibly even a top-six finish, or at the very least, a spot in the lower rungs of the now expanded top-10 finals system.
Their pre-season build-up was met with a challenging fixture list and a spate of injuries. Five interstate trips, including consecutive games in Adelaide, presented a difficult start. Despite this, the Saints managed to defeat Port Adelaide and were unlucky not to overcome Adelaide. They also faced Gold Coast in the oppressive Darwin humidity and are currently navigating a tough stretch of games against premiership contenders Fremantle, Hawthorn, and Sydney.
Key players have been sidelined, impacting their run and dare. Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera (calf) is nearing a return this week, while Mitch Owens (calf) and Liam Ryan (calf) might also be available for the Swans clash. Unfortunately, Sam Flanders (ruptured Achilles tendon) is out for the remainder of the season, and small forward Jack Higgins (knee) has also been a significant absence.
Tom De Koning continues to be a subject of discussion. The athletic ruckman, on a contract reportedly worth up to $1.7 million per season, has not yet consistently delivered the match-winning performances some anticipated. However, coach Ross Lyon defended his recruit after their disappointing loss to Hawthorn last Thursday, highlighting De Koning’s high ranking in score involvements and his two goals against the Hawks. Lyon commented, “He’ll just continue to grow and grow – it takes a while to embed people into your program.”
Lyon has consistently maintained that the Saints have shown improvement, even as far back as their 2-4 start to the season after their loss to the Crows. The ongoing absence of key forward Max King remains a considerable blow. While he represents one of the competition’s significant ‘ifs’, the Saints are optimistic about a stronger finish to the season.
The versatile Jack Silvagni impressed when deployed forward against the Hawks, contributing three goals. The club’s focus on player development is also yielding positive results, with Darcy Wilson, Max Hall, Mattaes Phillipou, and Hugo Garcia showing strong progress. The Saints are particularly keen to retain the uncontracted Wilson, who has attracted significant interest from rival clubs.
Ross Lyon is acutely aware of the unforgiving nature of the AFL. Champion Data indicates that St Kilda has the sixth-toughest run home to September, providing ample ammunition for both their proponents and detractors. The coming months will be a fascinating watch, especially with Lyon contracted until the end of 2027. The back half of this season could very well shape discussions around a contract extension for the coach, and even raise questions about potential successors, such as assistant Corey Enright.
“We have been in a lot of games, we just haven’t got over the line,” Lyon stated. “We have been pounding the rock, to borrow that term, we have been stacking it, we have been standing up, interstate, against quality, beating some teams around us quite well … but we need to improve. That sits with me, it doesn’t sit lightly.”
The Run Home Ladder: Examining the Fixtures Ahead
The remainder of the AFL season presents a challenging path for many clubs. Essendon faces the most arduous fixture of all 18 teams, placing significant pressure on interim coach Dean Solomon to make his mark. According to Champion Data’s analysis, which weights opposition based on team percentage, the Bombers have the toughest run home. Conversely, Hawthorn and Carlton are set for the easiest schedules.
Solomon’s tenure began with a five-goal loss to the West Coast Eagles in Perth, adding to the Bombers’ woes, who have secured only one win in their last 25 games. Their upcoming schedule includes clashes against Carlton, North Melbourne, St Kilda, Brisbane, the Giants, and Hawthorn before the end of July. Notably, nine of Essendon’s final 10 games are against teams currently in contention for the premiership or finals under the new top-10 model. Gold Coast, Port Adelaide, Greater Western Sydney, and Fremantle round out the top five teams facing the most difficult run to September.
Essendon legend Matthew Lloyd expressed his doubts about Solomon replacing Brad Scott, who was sacked with 18 months remaining on his contract. “It’s rare that the interim coach gets the job, I know we have seen it before if they can get on a run, so he would need to get on a real roll to get that job, otherwise I think it goes somewhere else,” Lloyd commented. He added, “He is the perfect man for this time because he is very selfless, very much an Essendon man. He is just doing what is right for the club right now. If he gets the job, I am sure he would be rapt, for sure, but I am sure that is not front of mind for him at the moment.”
In a significant development, James Hird has put his hand up to return to Essendon as coach, 11 years after his departure. Industry sources suggest that Hird would endorse Solomon as a senior coaching candidate, valuing his coaching ability and capacity to unify the club. These same sources indicate that if Hird’s bid is unsuccessful, he might be open to an assistant coaching role under Solomon.
Solomon himself has remained non-committal about pursuing the top job, stating after the loss to West Coast, “I honestly have shut down with all my social media … I’ve sort of had to control what I can control, focus on what I can focus on, and that’s leading this club, and these staff members, and the players in the short term. So I don’t think it’s going to have any impact on me. And I can’t really speak on behalf of the players, but I’m sure we’re all locked into what we need to do right now.”
While some potential candidates are waiting to see if Hird is officially considered, former Sydney premiership coach John Longmire is reportedly a strong contender. Longmire is also expected to be a target for Carlton, who have established a subcommittee to find a replacement for Michael Voss. Lloyd stressed the importance of an open and thorough process for the Bombers, saying, “You just hope the others they want to interview as well are willing to be interviewed. That’s what you hope for, that’s what the process is of the board. It’s going to be a big couple of weeks for them.”
Hird, a friend and former premiership teammate of Solomon, has long admired his coaching acumen. Essendon’s interim president, David Welsh, and chief executive Tim Roberts are reportedly working on forming a coaching subcommittee, with the job criteria to be finalised. Hird, speaking on Nine’s Footy Furnace, acknowledged the difficult circumstances Solomon faced in his first game, including the departure of two assistant coaches and a significant number of injured experienced players. “So, not their best performance, but, hopefully, Dean with a whole week ahead of him now to prepare for the Carlton game, can put some things together, a game plan in place, imprint his name on the team, and good luck to him next week,” Hird remarked. Assistant coach Ben Jacobs and psychologist Ben Robbins resigned out of loyalty to Scott.
