A strategically vital Swedish island, once a quiet outpost, has rapidly transformed into a critical linchpin for NATO’s defence strategy in the Baltic Sea. Gotland, situated in the heart of this crucial maritime region, recently played host to its inaugural large-scale NATO-coordinated military exercise since Sweden officially joined the alliance in 2024. This significant event saw approximately 18,000 troops from 13 different nations converge for drills designed to hone readiness for a potential regional confrontation. While the exercise served to bolster reassurance among allied nations, it also brought to light several sobering realities and lessons learned.
Gotland: A Cornerstone of Baltic Defence
Military strategists have long recognised Gotland’s paramount importance in Northern European security. Its geographical positioning grants unparalleled influence over vital shipping lanes, airspace, and military movements throughout a substantial portion of the Baltic Sea. Niklas Granholm, deputy director of the Swedish Defence Research Agency, articulated this strategic significance, stating, “Given the range and positioning of today’s weapons systems, if you control Gotland, you can control most of what happens in the Baltic Sea.” This strategic advantage has led military experts to frequently refer to the island as an “unsinkable aircraft carrier,” highlighting its capacity to project power and support operations across the entire region.
Sweden’s Robust Reinvestment in Gotland’s Defences
In recent years, Stockholm has embarked on a comprehensive endeavour to transform Gotland from a lightly defended territory into a heavily fortified military hub. A substantial investment exceeding €200 million has been channelled into bolstering its infrastructure. Concurrently, Swedish forces have strategically redeployed tanks, armoured vehicles, and advanced air-defence systems to the island, marking a significant resurgence of military presence after decades of reduced activity.
Andreas Gustafsson, commander of the Gotland Regiment, confirmed that troop numbers are set to continue their upward trajectory. Within the next year, more than 1,000 additional rotating soldiers are anticipated to join the approximately 4,500 personnel already stationed there. Furthermore, strategic plans are in motion to enhance the island’s capabilities with longer-range artillery and the introduction of new IRIS-T medium-range air-defence systems, slated to begin deployment from 2028.
The Drone Revelation: Ukraine’s Impact on NATO Preparedness
Perhaps the most striking and unexpected lesson to emerge from the recent exercises was not from the seasoned NATO commanders, but rather from Ukrainian drone specialists. During simulated combat scenarios, Ukrainian operators repeatedly demonstrated the potent capability of small, agile drones to effectively neutralise significantly more expensive and sophisticated military hardware.
A 24-year-old Ukrainian drone operator, known by the call sign Tarik, offered a stark and candid assessment of the experience. He plainly stated, “I just flew my drone — I saw them all, so they were easy targets.” This demonstration left an undeniable impression on the Swedish officers present. Commander Gustafsson candidly admitted, “My main conclusion is that we need to train much more with drones.”
Lingering Questions About American Commitment
The exercises also brought to the fore another issue that has been drawing increasing attention among European defence officials: the level of American participation. It was noted that the presence of US forces was smaller than initially anticipated. Some analysts interpret this as a potential reflection of growing uncertainty surrounding Washington’s long-term commitment to European security.
However, others urge caution against overinterpreting these numbers. US Marine Corps Lieutenant Colonel Travis Chamberlain expressed confidence in the enduring partnership, asserting, “Our forces worked exceptionally well together.”
Escalating Tensions in the Baltic Region
The heightened military preparations are not solely focused on the prospect of conventional warfare. Authorities on Gotland have reported a disturbing increase in incidents over the past 18 months, including instances of damaged undersea cables, disruptions to vital communications infrastructure, and suspicious drone activity.
Anna Wieslander of the Atlantic Council highlighted the palpable intensification of Russian activity in the region. She observed, “They have seen a very intensified Russian activity … cable cutting, drone flights, a number of espionage incidents.”
The leadership of Sweden’s armed forces firmly believes that a passive approach, waiting for Russia to rebuild its military capabilities, would be a grave miscalculation. According to Swedish Commander-in-Chief Michael Claesson, maintaining a constant state of readiness is paramount. He emphasised, “We should not sit passively and wait for one level or another of renewal of the Russian armed forces, but instead be constantly ready and on our toes.”
Claesson delivered a stark assessment of the broader security landscape, issuing a grave warning that a Russian attack “could happen at any time.” For NATO, Gotland has transcended its status as a remote Baltic island; it has now become a critical frontline proving ground for the alliance’s strategies to deter future threats in Northern Europe.
