Under the Microscope: Who’s Feeling the Heat in the AFL This Season?
The roar of the crowd, the crunch of a tackle, the strategic genius of a coach – all these elements contribute to the immense pressure cooker that is Australian Rules Football. As a new AFL season dawns, the spotlight intensifies, not just on the players executing spectacular marks and crunching goals, but also on those in leadership positions, the key personnel, and even entire clubs facing crucial junctures. From the coaches tasked with steering their ships through choppy waters to star players carrying immense expectations, the weight of the game rests on many shoulders. Let’s dissect which individuals and clubs are feeling the most pressure as the race for premiership glory heats up.
Adelaide Crows: Matthew Nicks’ Contractual Crossroads
After a five-year rebuilding phase under coach Matthew Nicks, the Adelaide Crows experienced a meteoric rise last season, only to falter spectacularly, becoming the first minor premier in the AFL era to be eliminated in straight sets from the finals. This abrupt end to their promising campaign has placed Nicks firmly in the hot seat. While a one-year contract extension through to the end of 2027 offers some security, the Crows faithful will be expecting a swift return to finals contention. Nicks must prove that last season’s finals implosion was merely a growing pain and not a sign of deeper issues.
Brisbane Lions: The Quest for a Three-Peat
The Brisbane Lions are a club riding a wave of success, having secured back-to-back premierships. This remarkable achievement has built significant goodwill. However, the pressure now shifts to achieving a coveted three-peat, a feat not seen since the club’s dominant era from 2001-03. For leaders like Lachie Neale and Harris Andrews, the challenge is to maintain the team’s insatiable hunger for success. While Neale’s well-publicised personal issues are expected to subside with the season’s commencement, the onus falls on Andrews, and potentially a new co-captain, to gauge the team’s morale and ensure they remain focused and driven.
Carlton Blues: Michael Voss’s Fight for Survival
Michael Voss, the Carlton coach, received a crucial reprieve late last season from new club CEO Graham Wright. However, with the Blues opening their season against the Sydney Swans, Voss will once again be fighting for his coaching future. Despite the significant loss of star forward Charlie Curnow, along with ruckman Tom De Koning and defender Jack Silvagni, the Blues remain optimistic about their finals aspirations. Should the team stumble early in the season, Voss will find himself under immense pressure, with his tenure hanging precariously in the balance.
Collingwood Magpies: Dan Houston’s Impact and Best-and-Fairest Scrutiny
The acquisition of Dan Houston from Port Adelaide was intended to bolster the Collingwood Magpies’ premiership aspirations. However, the dual All-Australian has yet to make the anticipated impact. Struggling to adapt to the Magpies’ system after making his name as one of the game’s premier ball-users, Houston finished outside the top 10 in the Copeland Medal count. The club is committed to finding a better role for him once he recovers from hip surgery. Furthermore, the Magpies’ best-and-fairest voting system has come under fire, with coach Craig McRae even suggesting it needs to be “challenged” after ruckman Darcy Cameron controversially edged out star Nick Daicos. Changes to this system will be keenly observed.
Essendon Bombers: Zach Merrett’s Loyalty Test
Zach Merrett’s professionalism in his preparation is beyond question. However, the focus for Essendon will be on how Merrett and his teammates navigate the aftermath of his failed bid to join the Hawks. While all parties are currently projecting a united front, the true test of this relationship will come during the gruelling winter months when the season is on the line. The key question for the Bombers is whether they can demonstrate sufficient improvement to convince Merrett to remain at the club, especially with the Hawks reportedly still interested.
Fremantle Dockers: Justin Longmuir’s Enduring Contract
The Fremantle Dockers returned to finals action in 2025 after a three-season drought, achieving their best win tally in a decade. However, their campaign ended with a disappointing home elimination final loss to the Gold Coast Suns. While the Dockers possess a core group of players poised to reach their peak, the club is also built to contend now. Improving their clearance differential is a critical objective for 2026. Coach Justin Longmuir is on an ongoing employment agreement, meaning the Dockers can act swiftly if they deem a change in leadership is necessary.
Geelong Cats: Bailey Smith’s Off-Field Conduct
Bailey Smith’s on-field contributions for the Geelong Cats in 2025 were commendable, though he’ll undoubtedly want to revisit the Grand Final performance. Coach Chris Scott has lauded Smith’s recruitment as an “outrageous success” and expressed confidence in his off-field conduct. However, some observers have found his behaviour to be distasteful and lacking class at times. With the AFL having issued warnings regarding his controversial social media activity, the Cats will be desperate to avoid any off-field distractions derailing their premiership ambitions.
Gold Coast Suns: Damien Hardwick’s Premiership Ambitions
The Gold Coast Suns celebrated their maiden finals appearance in 2025, a significant milestone. The acquisition of former Melbourne star Christian Petracca, joining a midfield already boasting Brownlow medallist Matt Rowell and captain Noah Anderson, has significantly boosted expectations. With former Bulldog Jamara Ugle-Hagan appearing to have found his stride, the onus is now on coach Damien Hardwick to harness this talent-laden list. Anything less than a preliminary final appearance would be considered a significant failure given the calibre of players at his disposal.
Greater Western Sydney Giants: Toby Greene’s Leadership Challenge
The premiership window for the GWS Giants and their inspirational captain, Toby Greene, appears to be narrowing. Recent seasons have seen them miss crucial opportunities, including a finals flame-out in 2024 and a disappointing elimination final loss at home last year, despite a strong run of form leading into it. The assimilation of Clayton Oliver will be a key storyline, but ultimately, it will be up to the 32-year-old Greene to ignite his team and drive them towards ultimate success.
Hawthorn Hawks: Will Day’s Health and Medical Team’s Responsibility
Will Day is arguably the Hawthorn Hawks’ most crucial player, and his presence in the midfield is vital if the team is to make the next logical step towards a Grand Final appearance. While Jai Newcombe impressed during the finals, he cannot carry the midfield burden alone. Day’s 2025 campaign was severely hampered by persistent navicular foot issues. With the Hawks opting not to pursue Zach Merrett, the pressure now intensifies on the club’s medical team to effectively manage Day’s recovery and ensure his availability.
Melbourne Demons: Leadership Under Scrutiny
While no one is expecting the Melbourne Demons to be outright premiership contenders in 2026, internal expectations dictate they should remain a legitimate finals team, especially with the introduction of a new 10-team finals format. Neither President Steven Smith nor CEO Paul Guerra held their current positions when the club parted ways with former coach Simon Goodwin. However, both were part of the panel that appointed his successor, Steven King, and will now expect a significant uplift in performance. The Demons have endured their share of internal turmoil over the past two seasons, and Smith and Guerra will be hoping this has abated.
North Melbourne Kangaroos: Alastair Clarkson’s Three-Season Struggle
Alastair Clarkson, a four-time premiership coach with Hawthorn, was expected to guide the North Melbourne Kangaroos towards finals contention within his first three seasons. However, with a combined total of just 11 wins, the past three years have been a considerable challenge, despite mitigating circumstances. Excuses are no longer acceptable, and the Kangaroos must demonstrate a far greater level of competitiveness. Their shift to a more one-on-one defensive system over the summer will be closely monitored. Clarkson has two seasons remaining on his contract, and the question remains whether he will see out his tenure.
Port Adelaide Power: David Koch’s Succession Plan and Zak Butters’ Future
The departure of Ken Hinkley after 13 seasons marked the end of an era for Port Adelaide. The focus now shifts to Josh Carr, who has ascended to the top coaching role through the club’s pre-determined succession plan. President David Koch was instrumental in devising this strategy, with the Power choosing to appoint from within rather than considering external candidates. While the Power are not considered premiership favourites, Koch and his board will be keen to see the club moving in the right direction. As for star player Zak Butters, he is a restricted free agent in 2026 and is poised to be the league’s most sought-after player. He faces a significant decision: return to Victoria or remain with the Power, and the constant speculation surrounding his future will be a significant test.
Richmond Tigers: Josh Smillie’s Injury Woes
While several young talents have begun to emerge for the Richmond Tigers, life has been unkind to Josh Smillie, a top-10 draft pick who missed his entire rookie season due to injury. The youngster underwent surgery for a quad issue in November, but the injury has failed to heal as anticipated. As a key part of the Tigers’ rebuild, Smillie (pick No. 7 in the 2024 draft) and Sam Lalor (pick No. 1) represent crucial pieces for the club’s future. The responsibility now rests with the club’s medical team to get Smillie back to full fitness.
St Kilda Saints: Recruitment Spree and Tom De Koning’s Mega Deal
The St Kilda Saints have been active in the recruiting market, securing the services of Tom De Koning, Jack Silvagni, Liam Ryan, and Sam Flanders. Furthermore, they have made star playmaker Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera the league’s first $2 million-a-season player. Having languished in mid-table mediocrity, the expectation is now for the Saints to make a significant leap into the finals. Failure to do so will undoubtedly lead to scrutiny. The pressure on Tom De Koning to perform under the weight of an eight-year mega-deal will also be a significant talking point.
Sydney Swans: Charlie Curnow’s Premiership Quest
While the coaching staff, led by Dean Cox, will be instrumental, the responsibility now falls on Charlie Curnow to be the missing piece in the Sydney Swans’ premiership puzzle. Curnow’s departure from Carlton was driven by a desire for change, but as a high-priced recruit, the expectations at Sydney are just as high as they were at Ikon Park. While Curnow may embrace Sydney’s lifestyle, a failure to build on their strong finish to the 2025 season will cast a shadow over his move.
West Coast Eagles: Harley Reid’s Beacon of Hope
It might seem unfair to place such immense pressure on Harley Reid, but this speaks volumes about the current predicament of the West Coast Eagles rather than the player himself. The former No. 1 draft pick finished third in the best-and-fairest count last season, his second year in the league, hinting at his potential to become a league-best player. However, his journey has been a challenging one. Despite joining a club with a recent premiership in 2018, the Eagles were deep into a rebuild when he arrived. The focus remains on Reid to be a symbol of hope, and the hope is that this pressure does not impede his development.
Western Bulldogs: Luke Beveridge’s Top-Four Drought
The Western Bulldogs amassed 14 wins with a healthy percentage of 137 in 2025, a record that would typically secure a top-eight finish in most seasons. However, it wasn’t enough, and the Bulldogs were left lamenting missed opportunities, particularly their poor record against top-eight teams. With Marcus Bontempelli at his peak, a strong midfield, an emerging star in Sam Darcy, and a renewed defensive focus, the team has the ingredients for success. However, premiership coach Luke Beveridge has never guided the Dogs to a top-four finish in his 11 seasons at the helm. With two years remaining on his contract, the clock is ticking for him to achieve this milestone.
