One Nation Eyes Major Gains, Barnaby Joyce Predicts Coalition Reliance
Ahead of a crucial electoral test in South Australia, Barnaby Joyce has thrown down an ambitious gauntlet for One Nation, boldly predicting the party will secure the top spot in numerous electorates. More startlingly, Joyce has asserted that the federal Coalition government may find itself reliant on One Nation for survival at the next general election.
The upcoming South Australian state election marks a significant moment for One Nation, serving as the first major electoral battleground since the party experienced a surge in public support last year. This renewed popularity has been bolstered by the inclusion of former Liberal senator Cory Bernardi on the party’s ticket for a lower house seat.
However, Joyce claims that the major political parties are actively targeting One Nation, employing strategic preference deals in an effort to undermine the populist movement. He articulated this concern during an interview, stating that while One Nation is poised to poll strongly, the preference flows from other parties will be manipulated to prevent them from winning seats.
“I will absolutely assure you that One Nation will poll number one in many seats, but then the preference flows of the other parties will try to make sure One Nation doesn’t get up,” Joyce declared. He further elaborated, “You just watch, there’ll be so many seats where One Nation comes first, but the other parties are so terrified … they’ll have to go back to climate change preferencing.”
This assertion comes in the wake of a noticeable uptick in One Nation’s popularity since late last year. Disenchanted voters, seeking an alternative to the struggling Liberal and National parties, have increasingly turned to One Nation, transforming it from a fringe movement into a credible contender for the conservative vote across Australia.
Farrer By-Election: A Potential Turning Point?
Adding to the electoral landscape is the impending by-election in the federal seat of Farrer. One Nation is aiming to secure its second lower house seat in federal parliament through this contest. The vacancy arose in February following the resignation of former Liberal leader Sussan Ley, who had held the seat for the Liberals for over two decades.
The Farrer by-election has evolved into a four-way contest, featuring candidates from One Nation, the Nationals, the Liberals, and an independent, Michelle Milthorpe. Joyce has weighed in on this race, suggesting that if the Liberal and National candidates place Ms. Milthorpe ahead of One Nation on their how-to-vote cards, it would signal the demise of the two conservative parties.
“If the (Liberals) and the (Nationals) preference socialists and (Ms Millthorpe) above us, then that will be that will ring loud and true for the federal election that these guys would prefer a climate Change 200 candidate to another conservative party,” he stated. “That is where the actual heart lies. That is why it’s all over for them. It’s finished for them.”
Joyce Defends Hanson, Foresees Coalition Deal
Earlier in the interview, Joyce was questioned about a sharp critique of Pauline Hanson by his former protégé and current Nationals leader, Matt Canavan. This week, Canavan had publicly disparaged the One Nation leader over her controversial remarks concerning Muslim Australians and questioned her tangible contributions to their shared home state of Queensland, specifically regarding the construction of roads, dams, or hospitals.
Joyce appeared to dismiss these criticisms, highlighting Senator Hanson’s election to the Senate. “You’ve got to remember the Senate is the house of review … it’s there to review legislation,” he explained. He contrasted this with his own position as the first lower house member for One Nation, acknowledging that “it’s a different game … the world’s changed.”
He then proceeded to outline the hypothetical circumstances under which a formal arrangement between the federal Coalition and One Nation could materialise during the next federal election.
“We get to the next election, (if) the polling stays where it is, there’s going to be maybe 20 or so One Nation seats,” Joyce posited. “No one is going to govern without coming to One Nation and seeing if they can get those numbers for supply and confidence.”
He concluded this point with a definitive statement on the inevitability of such an agreement: “And do you think for one second there won’t be a deal in that? Of course, it’ll be a deal. It’s not coalition, but you are going to want policy outcomes.”
Regarding Senator Hanson’s contentious remarks about Australian Muslims, including her questioning of the existence of “good Muslims,” Joyce declined to issue a direct condemnation. He offered a slight softening of his stance, conceding, “Nuancing what she said might have been better.”
