The modern State of Origin series is increasingly being decided by distinct first and second-half performances, according to rugby league doyen Phil Gould. His observations follow New South Wales’ remarkable comeback victory in the opening game of this year’s series.
Prior to Origin I, Gould had voiced concerns regarding the balance of the NSW squad selected by Laurie Daley, suggesting it lacked the cohesion seen in the Queensland side.
Furthermore, he harboured doubts about NSW’s resilience when defending without possession, a concern that manifested starkly in the opening 20 minutes of Game I, where Queensland surged to a commanding 20-0 lead.
Speaking on the Nine Network’s program 100% Footy, Gould elaborated on these points. “Everything I feared about Queensland came true,” he stated. “In the first hour of play, all my apprehensions about their team and the style of football they’d play – their skill, spontaneity, and the instinct of their halfback, coupled with the speed out wide to chase kicks – everything I feared, it all came to fruition.”
He continued, “And, unfortunately, everything I feared about the NSW side also materialised. There were some genuinely lazy moments in defence, and they made unforced errors when trying to play their way out of trouble. They were incredibly conservative in the first half of football. Really conservative. Queensland were the first to pass the ball in their own half, the first to spread it wide, string offloads together, kick early in the tackle count, and execute grubbers in the 20-metre zone. That’s what I feared about them; they possessed that natural football instinct, while we were perceived as a traditional grinding team.”
However, Gould’s analysis shifted to the second half, where he revealed a different NSW outfit emerged – one capable of accumulating points when willing to embrace risk.
He then identified a significant trend emerging from the last four Origin encounters: a pattern where one team consistently dominates one half of the match, with the pendulum swinging between the two states.
Last year’s series saw NSW claim Game I with an 18-6 victory, only for Queensland to fight back with wins in Games II and III (26-24 and 24-12 respectively) to clinch the series. This year’s Origin I was a nail-biter, with the Blues ultimately securing a 22-20 win.
The Second-Half Dominance of NSW
A closer examination of these recent fixtures reveals a striking statistic: across these matches, the NSW Blues have accumulated an impressive 56 points in the second half, while conceding a mere eight. This translates to an average of only two points conceded by Queensland in the latter stanza of these games.
“This indicates that NSW is handling the fatigue and fitness demands better than Queensland,” Gould explained. “They simply need to rectify their starts. Their opening to the last Origin was terrible, with dropped balls and some really lazy defence on their own line. The tries they conceded should have been preventable, but Queensland expertly identified their weaknesses and capitalised. That’s what they absolutely must fix. If they can improve their game initiation and adopt a slightly more adventurous approach early on, really putting Queensland under pressure, I believe they can secure a comprehensive victory.”
The stage is now set for Game II, scheduled to be played in Melbourne on June 17.
