One Nation Surges Ahead in Latest Polls, Challenging Major Parties

For the first time in its history, the right-wing populist party One Nation has surged ahead of both major political parties in a significant opinion poll. A recent survey, conducted by Redbridge Group and Accent Research and reported by the Australian Financial Review, polled approximately 1,000 individuals. The findings revealed One Nation outpolling the Australian Labor Party, securing 30 per cent of the vote compared to Labor’s 28 per cent.

This unexpected shift in public sentiment is resonating particularly strongly in regional Queensland, where many voters are reconsidering their traditional allegiances.

Regional Queenslanders Eyeing a New Political Direction

In the northern reaches of the state, residents like 18-year-old Jake Tanti from Mackay are weighing their options. While Tanti won’t be eligible to vote in the next federal election in 2025, his primary concern is the soaring cost of housing and the dream of homeownership. He admits he’s not yet familiar with any party’s specific housing policies for first-time buyers, but One Nation has undeniably captured his attention.

“I’ve seen clips of the Senate featuring Pauline Hanson more than any other politician on social media, hands down,” Tanti stated. “On my social media feeds, it’s mainly been One Nation appearing.”

This sentiment is echoed by other regional voters who feel disconnected from the established political landscape. Noel Flor, a long-time Coalition voter from regional Queensland, expressed his disillusionment. He believes the current government is out of touch with the everyday concerns of the public and feels Labor has “gone to the dogs.” Consequently, One Nation is now a serious contender for his vote in the upcoming federal election.

“I think Pauline Hanson is doing a good job… what she says makes sense,” Flor commented.

Voices from Central Queensland and Beyond

Further south in Rockhampton, the federal seat of Capricornia, held by the National Party’s Michelle Landry since 2013, Peter Comino is also contemplating a change. “I’m not happy with Australian politics,” he admitted, indicating a willingness to re-evaluate his voting choices. “People have realised that these major parties haven’t been listening for decades, and we’re getting sick of it.”

The sentiment of dissatisfaction extends to holidaymakers as well. Victorian couple Colleen and Jim Bunny, who typically cast their vote for Labor, indicated they would not be repeating that choice at the next federal election, scheduled for 2028.

“Labor and Liberal are so far behind the eight ball with what the people want,” Ms. Bunny remarked. “I’m not a fan of [Pauline Hanson], but she’s saying what people want… I think she’s doing well.”

Mr. Bunny concurred, observing that Senator Hanson has become more articulate over her years in politics. “She’s not shooting so much from the hip now like she used to… she’s listening to the people and what needs to be done,” he added.

Pauline Hanson’s Prime Ministerial Ambitions

Buoyed by the poll results, Senator Pauline Hanson boldly declared her potential to become prime minister if the public desires it. Speaking to ABC Radio Brisbane on Monday, she stated, “At the moment, I’m head of the party. I’m leader of the party. Would I be able to do the job? I believe that I could.” She acknowledged the timeframe, noting, “I do believe I have the ability, but it’s another year and a half outside of an election.” Senator Hanson also revealed that she has not ruled out contesting a seat in the lower house prior to the next election.

A Decades-Long Trajectory for Minor Parties

The current surge in One Nation’s popularity is not an overnight phenomenon but rather the culmination of trends that have been developing over decades. In the last federal election, One Nation garnered approximately 6 per cent of the national vote. However, this year, the party has demonstrably outperformed the Coalition and now, in polls, even Labor. It also collected more primary votes than the Liberals in the recent South Australian election and secured its inaugural seat in the Farrer by-election.

Sarah Cameron, a political scientist at Griffith University, attributes this rise to a broader decline in voter loyalty. “Political partisanship for the major parties has reached record lows in recent elections… people are feeling increasingly detached,” Dr. Cameron explained.

She further elaborated on another significant long-term trend: increasing voter volatility. “It used to be that Australians would consistently vote the same way every election. That has gradually declined,” she noted. “We have a situation where people aren’t feeling close to the major parties. They’re open to switching their vote from election to election.”

According to Dr. Cameron, short-term campaign factors, such as specific issues and the appeal of party leaders, now hold greater sway. “It’s no longer the case that people have determined their vote far in advance,” she said. “This creates a lot of unpredictability in determining what might happen at the next election.”

However, Dr. Cameron cautioned that declining trust in the major parties alone may not be sufficient to guarantee substantial gains for minor parties or independents in the upcoming federal election. “It does create an opportunity for alternative actors to mount campaigns that tap into voter frustration,” she concluded. “This isn’t something that has just been seen in Australia… it’s been observed around the world.”