Rising Odds of Impeachment for President Trump
The likelihood of President Donald Trump facing impeachment before the end of his second term has reached unprecedented levels, according to online betting platforms. One of the most prominent prediction market sites, Kalshi, currently estimates the chances of Trump being impeached at 69 percent. This is the highest figure since the market was launched in November 2024.
Over time, these odds have steadily increased. Initially, the probability stood at just 33 percent the week after Trump’s election victory and rose to 59 percent a year after his inauguration. Meanwhile, on Polymarket, another major platform, the odds of Trump being formally charged by the House of Representatives are currently at 46 percent. The market, which was created on Thursday, has maintained around 50 percent odds since its launch.
Trump has repeatedly mentioned the possibility of impeachment since returning to office. During a retreat with Republican lawmakers in Washington, D.C., in early January, he warned, “You gotta win the midterms cause, if we don’t win the midterms…they’ll find a reason to impeach me.” He later joked about the prospect during a phone call with the U.S. men’s hockey team, suggesting that failing to invite the women’s team could lead to his impeachment.
This is not the first time Trump has faced impeachment. During his first term, he became the only president in U.S. history to be impeached twice — in 2019 over allegations of pressuring Ukraine’s president to investigate Joe Biden, and in 2021 regarding claims that he incited the January 6 Capitol riot. Both times, the Senate acquitted him.
The Limitations of Prediction Markets
Despite the high odds set by these platforms, there is no certainty that Trump will face a third impeachment. These betting sites, while popular among millions, are not infallible. Their track record in predicting outcomes has been mixed.
For instance, on March 3, Polymarket gave Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton an 83 percent chance of winning the Republican Senate primary. However, Paxton ended up securing 40.7 percent of the vote, narrowly losing to incumbent Sen. John Cornyn, who received 41.9 percent. A runoff between the two candidates followed.
On the other hand, there have been instances where prediction markets accurately forecasted events. Before the 2024 election, Polymarket placed Trump’s chances of winning at over 61 percent. He ultimately defeated former Vice President Kamala Harris, winning all seven swing states.
As these platforms gain popularity, they have also drawn significant scrutiny, particularly due to bets that suggest potential insider trading. Just before a joint U.S.-Israel strike on Iran, traders on Polymarket were actively placing wagers on possible outcomes. One user, “Magamyman,” made $553,000 by correctly predicting the ousting of Iran’s supreme leader.
“This is insane this is legal,” wrote Senator Chris Murphy, a Democrat from Connecticut, on X. “People around Trump are profiting off war and death. I’m introducing legislation ASAP to ban this.”
On March 17, Murphy introduced a bill aimed at banning prediction markets from betting on government actions that are considered vulnerable to manipulation. That same day, Arizona became the first U.S. state to file criminal charges against Kalshi, accusing the company of operating an illegal gambling business.
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